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Melbourne Victory – Newcastle Jets: predictions and statistics
Archive simulation: this prediction was not published live; it was calculated later using only pre-match data.
Lineups and participation reports
API-Football · Selected matches are checked when quota allows. Coverage is incomplete. These factual reports do not change the prediction model.
Injuries, suspensions and doubtful participation
No verified participation report is available for this fixture yet.
Starting lineup availability
Confirmed starting lineups are not available yet. An empty response does not confirm who will play.
Data behind this prediction
These are the measurements recorded with this prediction. No invented lineup, injury or weather explanations are added.
- Expected goals · home / away
- 1.83 / 1.28
Match preview
Melbourne Victory — Newcastle Jets: Австралийн A-League, 5-р сарын 4, Ням, УБ-ын цагаар 15:00. Цэнгэлдэх: AAMI Park.
Standings: Melbourne Victory — position 5 (42 points, 25 played), Newcastle Jets — position 9 (29 points, 25 played).
Last 5 matches — Melbourne Victory: L W W L W; Newcastle Jets: D L W L L.
3 stored head-to-head matches (most recent: 2025.02.08): Melbourne Victory 1 wins, 1 draws, Newcastle Jets 1 wins.
Model probabilities: Melbourne Victory win 50%, draw 23%, Newcastle Jets win 27%. Most likely score 1:1, expected total goals 3.11.
Over 2.5 goals probability 60%; both teams to score probability 61%.
1X2 and double chance
| Home win (1) | 50% |
|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 23% |
| Away win (2) | 27% |
| 1X | 73% |
| X2 | 50% |
| 12 | 77% |
Under / Over
| Under | Over | |
| 0.5 | 4% | 96% |
| 1.5 | 18% | 82% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 4.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 5.5 | 90% | 10% |
| Both teams to score | Yes 61% | No 39% |
First half
| 1 | 38% |
|---|---|
| X | 38% |
| 2 | 24% |
| Over 0.5 | 75% |
| Over 1.5 | 41% |
Half-time / Full-time
Rows — half-time; columns — full-time
Handicap (home)
| Line | Win | Draw at the line | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| -1.0 | 28% | 22% | 50% |
| -0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| +0.0 | 50% | 23% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1.0 | 73% | 16% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Probability of each result after adding the line to the home team's goal difference.
Most likely exact scores
- 1:110.4%
- 2:19.6%
- 1:08.2%
- 2:07.5%
- 1:26.7%
- 2:26.1%
Expected goals: Melbourne Victory 1.83 · Newcastle Jets 1.28
Team statistics
| Melbourne Victoryhome | Newcastle Jetsaway | |
| Matches | 10 | 10 |
| Оруулсан гоол / тоглолт | 2.10 | 1.70 |
| Алдсан гоол / тоглолт | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Гоол оруулаагүй | 10% | 10% |
Based on up to 10 recent matches (90-minute scores). Matches before a gap of 60+ days are excluded; season coverage may be incomplete.
Melbourne Victory — recent matches
- 25.04.25 Macarthur – Melbourne Victory 1-2 W
- 25.04.19 Melbourne Victory – Auckland 0-2 L
- 25.04.12 Wellington Phoenix – Melbourne Victory 2-3 W
- 25.03.29 Melbourne Victory – Adelaide United 5-3 W
- 25.03.15 Western Sydney Wanderers – Melbourne Victory 4-2 L
- 25.03.08 Melbourne Victory – Central Coast Mariners 3-0 W
Newcastle Jets — recent matches
Melbourne Victory — home
Head-to-head
- 25.02.08 Newcastle Jets – Melbourne Victory 3-0 (0-0)
- Манай санд байгаа өмнөх тоглолтууд — дунд нь манай санд байхгүй тоглолт байж болно
- 24.02.03 Newcastle Jets – Melbourne Victory 1-1 (0-1)
- 23.10.29 Melbourne Victory – Newcastle Jets 5-3 (4-1)