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Ajax – AZ Alkmaar: predictions and statistics
This prediction was published and locked before the match and will not change.
Lineups and participation reports
API-Football · Selected matches are checked when quota allows. Coverage is incomplete. These factual reports do not change the prediction model.
Injuries, suspensions and doubtful participation
No verified participation report is available for this fixture yet.
Starting lineup availability
Confirmed starting lineups are not available yet. An empty response does not confirm who will play.
Data behind this prediction
These are the measurements recorded with this prediction. No invented lineup, injury or weather explanations are added.
- Recent matches · home / away
- 27 / 28
- Days since last match
- 6 / 6
- Sufficient league history
- Yes
- Expected goals · home / away
- 1.83 / 1.29
- Data-dependent strength weight
- 1.00
Match preview
Ajax — AZ Alkmaar: Нидерландын Eredivisie, 11-р сарын 1, Ням, УБ-ын цагаар 04:00. Цэнгэлдэх: Johan Cruijff Arena.
Standings: Ajax — position 2 (21 points, 10 played), AZ Alkmaar — position 5 (20 points, 10 played).
Last 5 matches — Ajax: D L W W W; AZ Alkmaar: L W D W L.
8 stored head-to-head matches (most recent: 2026.02.08): Ajax 0 wins, 3 draws, AZ Alkmaar 5 wins.
Ajax — 12 consecutive matches scoring.
Model probabilities: Ajax win 50%, draw 24%, AZ Alkmaar win 27%. Most likely score 1:1, expected total goals 3.12.
Over 2.5 goals probability 60%; both teams to score probability 61%.
1X2 and double chance
| Home win (1) | 50% |
|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 24% |
| Away win (2) | 27% |
| 1X | 73% |
| X2 | 50% |
| 12 | 76% |
Under / Over
| Under | Over | |
| 0.5 | 5% | 95% |
| 1.5 | 18% | 82% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 4.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 5.5 | 90% | 10% |
| Both teams to score | Yes 61% | No 39% |
First half
| 1 | 38% |
|---|---|
| X | 38% |
| 2 | 24% |
| Over 0.5 | 75% |
| Over 1.5 | 41% |
Half-time / Full-time
Rows — half-time; columns — full-time
Handicap (home)
| Line | Win | Draw at the line | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| -1.0 | 28% | 22% | 50% |
| -0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| +0.0 | 50% | 24% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1.0 | 73% | 15% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Probability of each result after adding the line to the home team's goal difference.
Most likely exact scores
- 1:110.8%
- 2:19.5%
- 1:07.7%
- 2:07.4%
- 1:26.7%
- 2:26.2%
Expected goals: Ajax 1.83 · AZ Alkmaar 1.29
Team statistics
| Ajaxhome | AZ Alkmaaraway | |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| Оруулсан гоол / тоглолт | 2.17 | 2.50 |
| Алдсан гоол / тоглолт | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 67% |
| Both teams to score | 83% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Гоол оруулаагүй | 0% | 17% |
Based on up to 10 recent matches (90-minute scores). Matches before a gap of 60+ days are excluded; season coverage may be incomplete.
Ajax — recent matches
AZ Alkmaar — recent matches
Ajax — home
Head-to-head
- Манай санд байгаа өмнөх тоглолтууд — дунд нь манай санд байхгүй тоглолт байж болно
- 26.02.08 AZ Alkmaar – Ajax 1-1 (0-0)
- 25.10.19 Ajax – AZ Alkmaar 0-2 (0-2)
- 25.03.16 Ajax – AZ Alkmaar 2-2 (0-0)
- 24.12.08 AZ Alkmaar – Ajax 2-1 (0-0)
- 24.02.25 AZ Alkmaar – Ajax 2-0 (1-0)
- 23.10.08 Ajax – AZ Alkmaar 1-2 (0-1)
- 23.05.07 Ajax – AZ Alkmaar 0-0 (0-0)
- 22.09.18 AZ Alkmaar – Ajax 2-1 (2-1)
Ajax — trends
AZ Alkmaar — trends
No notable streaks.
Streaks include only stored matches with no gap longer than 60 days between consecutive matches.